IMF estimates growth rate of 7.3% for India in

Why in the discussion?
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook report said that in the current year of 2018, India will achieve an increase of 7.3 percent and a growth rate of 7.4 percent in 2019. While in the year 2017, India saw an increase of 6.7 percent.
key points
  • If the estimates are true, then India will leave China behind the growth rate of more than 0.7 percent in 2018 and get the tag of the world's fastest growing major economy, and in the year 2019, China has an impressive growth of 1.2 percent. Will take it.
  • These estimates are slightly lower than the statistics of the World Economic Outlook [WEO] report for 2019 published in April 2018 due to the recent rise in oil prices and hard global financial conditions.
  • The IMF said that it is reflected in the emergence of temporary shocks (currency exchange initiatives and execution of goods and services tax), with increased personal consumption and strong personal consumption which has come in the Indian economy.
  • According to this report, inflation is increasing in India between rising demand and rising fuel prices, which is 3.6% of FY13-17 and 4.7% in FY 2018-19 Estimated.
  • Due to the ongoing structural reforms, India's medium-term growth prospects have remained strong at 7.75 percent, but compared to the World Economic Outlook report of April 2018, it has been estimated that only half a percent reduction has been made.
  • In this latest World Economic Outlook report, it has been said that in recent years, many important improvements have been made in India, including object and service tax, inflation targeted action plan, purification disability and bankruptcy code and liberalization of foreign investment and making it easier to trade. went.
China Economic Report
  • In 2017, the Chinese economy was the fastest growing economy in the world and its growth rate was 0.2 percent higher than India. For the record, the IMF has reduced development estimates of 0.4 percent and 0.32 percent respectively for both India and China, in comparison to the World Economic Outlook annual report of April 2018.
  • According to the World Economic Outlook report released in Bali during the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank, due to the latest round of US tariff on Chinese imports, the growth forecast for China for 2019 is less than the projections released in April, India Its estimates are also similar for this.
  • The report says that the growth rate in China is expected to decrease from 6.9 percent in 2017 to 6.6 percent in 2018 and 6.2 percent in 2019, which reflects the slow growth in external demand and the hardening of the necessary financial regulators.
Global Economy
  • For both the years 2018 and 2019, a global growth of 3.7 percent has been estimated, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast for 3.9 percent for both years in July.
  • The US growth rate for 2018 is estimated at 2.9 percent and for 2019 it is 2.5 percent.
  • It has been said in the report that the total growth in the emerging markets and the developing economy group has stabilized in the first half of 2018. 
  • It is notable that during this period, emerging Asia continued to register strong growth, which was supported by domestic demand-based rapidly in 2017, instead of the four-year low-speed improvement. Regardless of the economic activities in China, slowing down in the second quarter, the property sector and the non-bank financial arbitration regulatory.
World economic outlook 
  • World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey organized and published by the International Monetary Fund.
  • It depicts the global economy in near and medium terms with estimates of up to four years of the future.
  • WEO forecasts include important economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, current account and financial balance of more than 180 countries around the world.
Source: The Hindu Business Line

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