Last option for Idalib, Syrian war

Context

Recently, an agreement has been reached between Russia's President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to protect against the terrorist attack. It is notable that this is the last place in Syria where anti-government and  terrorist  activities are in progress. According to this agreement, Russia and Turkey will establish contact between the terrorists and the administrative forces of Idlib through a civilian zone, hopefully it will prevent the crisis arising in front of humanism.

Idalib city

• Idlib is a city located in the north-western part of Syria and is governed by the Syrian government and it is located 59 kilometers far southwest of Aleppo.
• For several months, the clouds of war were on Idlib, for more than three years the city was out of control of the Syrian government. Recently, President Bashar al-Assad has actually won a civil war in the ongoing world war.
• In fact, since then, the government has reconstructed most of the major population centers, including Aleppo, Dara and Eastern Ghouta, which were mainly in the possession of the terrorists.
• These three areas located outside government control can be divided into this way: the first region is the city of Idlīb, controlled by terrorists and jihadist groups, while the second is the region of Kurdistan, which is under the control of the Kurdish rebels, and these enemies of Damascus Are not, but want more autonomy and the third area includes border towns like Afrin and Jabulus Are in control of Turkey.

The clear and last option for the Syrian civil war 

• In the above mentioned areas, there is no immediate plan to attack the Kurds as they have the support of the United States.
• At the same time, the Syrian government can not take the risk of a major war by attacking Turkey.
• Obviously the next and perhaps the last option for the Syrian civil war was the Idlib.
• It is noteworthy that on the basis of recent agreement between Russia and Turkey, Iran also supported this plan because it wants Bashar al-Assad to re-establish its authority in entire Syria.
• These provinces are the last bastion of rebels and jihadi groups trying to oust Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad from power.
• The United Nations says that there are approximately two million people living in Idlīb, of which nearly one million are children, and most of the people living in this city have fled from other occupied areas of the rebels.
• Indeed, as the government went on winning the rebels' place, people from there fled and settled in Iddib.
• It is hoped that if the rebels were destroyed in Ilylib, they would have very few areas within Syria and thus the defeat of the rebels in Ilylib could prove their end.

Role of turkey 

• In the last fight of civil war, Russia had established its control in this area. The bombing carried out by the Russian warplanes in Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta was crucial for the victory of the rule, but situation in Idlib was different.
• Russia and Turkey have not been in good relationship with each other for the past two years, and last year Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed on a de-escalation scheme for Idlib, who kept the province out of Russian-Syrian attacks.
• According to the terms of this agreement, Turkey had 12 observation points on the front line and those who did not want to remain under the territorial areas were included in Idalib.
• Currently there are approximately three million inhabitants in this province and more than half of them are internally displaced people.
• Turkey, which already has 3.5 million Syrian refugees, fears that a complete attack on Ilydeb will push another more massive refugee flow.
• There is a large number of jihadists in Yidlih, of Ha'at-tahir al-Sham (HTS), formerly Jabat al-Nusar, which was an al-Qaida army in Syria, is one of the most powerful terrorist groups in the province.
• Apart from this, Idlib shares the border with Turkey, which is now closed and in the event of war, the refugees will go to the Turkish border or neighboring Afrin and the Zarbulas areas, which are controlled by Turkey.
• Therefore, in any case, Turkey will face crisis itself on the attack on Idalib. Indeed, the series of terrorist attacks since 2016 has not yet ended, so the interest of Turkey is also to find a non-violent solution for Idlib.

Role of Russia 

• Russia, on the other hand, is in a dilemma and wants to choose a legitimate path in Syria to win Assad civil war. But Russia also knows that the situation has already worsened before the operations of Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta and the next battle will be more devastating in view of the population of Idliib.
• Apart from this, the Russian has preferred relations with the President. It is notable that Turkey, who is a member of NATO, is quickly becoming hostile towards the United States,
• For the above-mentioned ideological reasons, Russia is not engaging in matters of West Asia.
• Russia has built strong ties with both Iran and Israel, and a growing partnership with Turkey is crucial for its testing of power in this region, because of the hostility to Turkey, Bosporus will not be able to reach Russia, and this will bring Russia's Mediterranean strategy Can also come in danger.

Forward path 

• The Idalib agreement is important but it has not given any realistic solution to the crisis, because the main reason for the problem is the presence of HTS in Idlib.
• According to the United Nations, there are approximately 15,000 HTS fighters in Idlib. The government's plan is to attack all terrorist groups, including the HTS and the Turkish-backed rebels, and thus, he wants to regain the Aleppo province again.
• Neither the Syrian government nor the Turkish al-Qaida group can allow a safe haven in Idlib.
• However, Turkey has proposed HTS fighters to use non-violent tactics to increase their organizational power.
• At the same time, the burden of implementing the current agreement is also in Turkey, for which it is necessary to prepare a strong road map to return the huge weapons of the rebels from the proposed civilian region and defeat the HTS inside the province, and it is not very easy . 
• If Turkey fails to fulfill its commitments, then excuse to let Russia return to its original plan i.e. Aleppo model (the way the terrorists were dispersed from Aleppo city and the path of massive destruction for peace establishment in this city). And it will also become the cause of another demolition.  
• Therefore, it can be said that the Putin-Erdogan agreement may have postponed a war, but this does not end the crisis of war.

 Source: The Hindu